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COVID-19 Updates

COVID-19 Science Update for March 24th: Counting Cases and Deaths

The analysis here is complicated, because a massive testing regime doesn’t seem to be a necessary component of COVID-19 suppression.

· 8 min read
COVID-19 Science Update for March 24th: Counting Cases and Deaths
Screenshot from Our World in Data.

The latest global data for COVID-19—updated with reports received on March 24th, 2020—have been published at Our World in Data. Here are some of the numbers and trends that I believe deserve special attention, as well as a brief report on notable developments and analyses. Since March 21st, these updates have been published at Quillette in our section marked COVID-19 UPDATES. Please report needed corrections or suggestions to [email protected].

There were 1,764 new deaths reported globally over the last day. This represents an increase from the previous day’s jump, which was 1,660, and Sunday’s reported jump, which was 1,690. France had its deadliest day yet, with 186 deaths. The United States had 119 deaths, down from 131. Crucially, Italy had its second day in a row of declining death count—601 versus Monday’s 649 and Sunday’s 795. (Italy also had its second straight day of decline in new cases reported: 4,789, down from 5,560 and 6,557 on Monday and Sunday respectively.) Spain’s daily tally jumped to 462, up from 394 on Monday. If these trends continue, it is possible that Spain could have more daily deaths than Italy by the end of the week.

Denmark reported 11 new deaths, representing almost a doubling of total deaths in that country. This is a predictable delayed effect given that Denmark’s initial surge of freshly reported cases began two weeks ago. A similar pattern of delay-then-death has been playing out, at various scales, in Sweden, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Portugal, the UK, and Brazil. On a much smaller scale: Greece had a surge of cases in mid-March, and now is experiencing its first steady stream of fatalities this week. Typically, this cycle time in national statistics seems to be about 10 days.