COVID-19 Updates - Quillette

COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons

In the absence of any comprehensive database of COVID-19 superspreading events, I built my own.

Jonathan Kay

23 Apr 2020 · 20 min read

PODCAST 84: Talat Chughtai, Director of the Trauma Intensive Care Unit at Hamad General Hospital, on Treating COVID-19

Quillette

1 Apr 2020 ·

COVID-19 Science Update for March 31st: Wear a Mask, Georgia's SSE, Kinsa's Fever Map

Both the scientific literature and media reports suggest COVID-19 transmission is most likely to take place (1) within families, and (2) through one-off SSEs of the type described above.

Jonathan Kay

31 Mar 2020 · 6 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 30th: The Planet's Deadly Viral Baseline

According to statistics compiled by Our World in Data (OWD), the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 deaths decreased yesterday.

Jonathan Kay

30 Mar 2020 · 5 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 29th: Keep Your Voice Down

The latest research on COVID-19 tells us that “the major transmission mechanisms are not fine aerosols but large droplets.”

Jonathan Kay

30 Mar 2020 · 8 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 28th: Bergamo's Decimation, More SSEs, and the Case for Masks

On an annualized basis, the last three weeks in Lombardy correspond to a regional per-capita death rate of 0.72 percent—or, put another way, the death of one person out of every 140 residents.

Jonathan Kay

28 Mar 2020 · 6 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 27th: Super-Spreaders and the Need for New Prediction Models

Absent isolation or other precautionary measures, the average socially active COVID-19 infectee will transmit the disease to an average of about 2.4 people. i.e., the R0 value is 2.4. But super-spreaders can spread a disease to dozens or hundreds.

Jonathan Kay

27 Mar 2020 · 11 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 26th: Five Trends Shaping Medium-Term Policy

Even if a COVID-19 vaccine were invented tomorrow (it won’t be), our experience with the virus shows how underprepared we are for this kind of public-health emergency.

Jonathan Kay

26 Mar 2020 · 10 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 25th: Understanding Models

This clustering phenomenon explains why the COVID-19 policy debate among politicians, doctors, and pundits now has become somewhat surreal, with world-class experts telling us either that we are facing an “apocalypse,” or that the pandemic will fizzle and we’re all “going to be fine.”

Jonathan Kay

25 Mar 2020 · 11 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 24th: Counting Cases and Deaths

The analysis here is complicated, because a massive testing regime doesn’t seem to be a necessary component of COVID-19 suppression.

Jonathan Kay

24 Mar 2020 · 8 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 23rd: The Wealth Paradox

For the first time in a week, the daily number of new global confirmed COVID-19 deaths has dropped—from 1,690 to 1,660. That’s a small drop, but it’s important.

Jonathan Kay

23 Mar 2020 · 5 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 22nd: Grim Omens in the U.S.

The problem isn’t just the number of ventilators and ICU beds, but also the limited number of staff who can operate such equipment.

Jonathan Kay

22 Mar 2020 · 6 min read

COVID-19 Science Update for March 21st: What Is Germany Doing Right?

There are reports of ventilator shortages, and the possibility of an Italian-style horror show, with doctors deciding whose parents live and whose parents die, seems real.

Jonathan Kay

22 Mar 2020 · 5 min read

Conceit and Contagion: How the Virus Shocked Europe

Bruno Maçães

14 Mar 2020 · 5 min read