The Feckless Lebanese State
American money and goodwill cannot fix a state when its own people refuse to make the sacrifices necessary to establish and defend effective, efficient, and responsible governance.
On Saturday 27 July, rockets fired from Lebanon struck a football pitch in the Israeli town of Majdal Shams, killing twelve Druze civilians and wounding dozens more. Hezbollah, the theocratic Iranian regime’s proxy militia in Lebanon, has “categorically” denied responsibility for the attack, but Israel maintains it is lying. Hezbollah’s denials are not especially plausible. Since 8 October, the group has been bombarding northern Israel with rocket fire in solidarity with Hamas. This latest lethal attack—the worst since the atrocities of 7 October—will further impede efforts by the Biden administration to secure a diplomatic resolution to the growing violence on Israel’s northern border. But even before the attack on Majdal Shams, US efforts were challenged by the fecklessness of the Lebanese state.
The Biden administration’s diplomatic initiatives have rested on the idea that the Lebanese state can help to de-escalate and even resolve the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. On 17 June, the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), General Joseph Aoun, visited Congress and Biden administration officials to secure further material support and discuss the LAF’s role in ending the violence. The following day, the Lebanese prime minister, foreign minister, and speaker of the parliament welcomed US envoy Amos Hochstein to discuss de-escalation measures and terms for an Israeli-Lebanese border settlement.
But the notion that the LAF and Lebanese government officials are capable and reliable partners is delusional, and it always has been. For years, the Lebanese state has not even been able to guarantee a basic public service like electricity for its own citizens, while many Lebanese have actively worked to undermine the authority, capabilities, and credibility of their own institutions. Consequently, the state’s participation and presence will not be able to ensure security or deter violence at and near the Israeli border for the foreseeable future.
The United States has devoted considerable time, resources, and money to propping up the Lebanese state. For the past eighteen years, American taxpayers have funded and equipped the LAF to the tune of roughly US$4 billion. The idea was to build up and strengthen what US officials call the “last credible national institution” so that it could function as a counterweight to Hezbollah. To that end, during the Biden administration, American tax dollars were even used to pay the salaries of LAF soldiers.
Following Hezbollah’s decision to initiate conflict with Israel on 8 October, Amos Hochstein made multiple trips to Lebanon in an attempt to restore calm. This shuttle diplomacy produced a proposal that involved the following four measures:
