The MAGA Right is passionately united in its condemnation of the Iraq war. But this unanimity collapses when the topic turns to America’s alliance with Israel. One faction, which by all indications includes President Donald Trump, sees Israel as a valuable asset: a front-line ally fighting shared enemies on our behalf so that Americans don’t have to. Others see something more sinister: a client state that takes American military aid and then drags the United States into its wars.

Given the power of MAGA opposition to the Iraq War, it should come as no surprise that Israel’s opponents are doing their best to link Israel to that war. As Tucker Carlson recently put it during an interview with Glenn Greenwald, “At the behest of a foreign government—Israel—the United States began preparing for war against Iraq immediately after the attacks on 9/11. ... I’m not suggesting that, y’know, they staged 9/11 for that purpose. But I am saying unequivocally that they used 9/11 for that purpose. We know that. It’s not a conspiracy theory. And it’s appalling. It’s disgusting.” If Tucker and his allies persuade a majority of the MAGA movement that Israel is to blame for the Iraq war, then Israel’s support on the Right will quickly wither away. The claim is MAGA kryptonite.

The claim that Israel pushed America into Iraq, however, is baseless. If anything, the opposite is true. While Carlson supported the Iraq War in 2003, the Israeli government most certainly did not. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and most of his government were deeply concerned that the invasion of Iraq would unleash and embolden a far more troubling enemy: Iran. They repeatedly warned the Bush administration that invading Iraq would be a disaster. Only after the decision to go to war was taken did Sharon and major American Jewish organisations decide to get on board rather than risk alienating the US government. 

Israel’s Warnings

Despite Carlson’s suggestion to the contrary, American administrations do not act “at the behest of” Israel. In the US–Israel relationship, Israel is very much the junior partner. President Trump’s recent statement that he will “not allow” Israel to annex the West Bank is just the latest example of the actual power dynamic. The Israelis have sometimes criticised US presidents perceived as hostile to their security interests, most notably President Barack Obama as he pursued a nuclear deal with Iran. But they never publicly criticise friendly administrations. When they’ve disagreed with a friendly president, the Israelis have always voiced their concerns in private. This is exactly what happened in the run-up to the Iraq War.

Reports began to reach Israeli officials in December 2001 that the Bush administration was beginning serious planning for an attack on Iraq. Shortly thereafter, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon asked for an in-person meeting with President Bush. The meeting was scheduled for 7 February 2002. 

In the intervening weeks, Israeli officials began previewing the argument they would make at the February meeting and in the months that followed. They noted that, since the 1990 Gulf War, Iraq had been largely contained and no longer posed the threat it once had. Iran, on the other hand, was aggressively pursuing its regional ambitions and nuclear program. They warned that overthrowing Saddam Hussein would remove Iran’s greatest enemy and the main obstacle to Iranian regional domination. This would almost certainly empower and embolden Iran.

These warnings were made in private, but the message from Sharon and his government was so insistent that it quickly became common knowledge. Conversations on Capitol Hill and elsewhere in Washington about the planned invasion assumed Israeli scepticism. These warnings eventually reached the press. As Israeli historian Martin Kramer has noted, during 2002, three major US newspapers reported the steady stream of Israeli warnings.

On 6 February 2022, the Washington Post ran a story under the headline “Israel Emphasizes Iranian Threat,” in which Alan Sipress reported:

As Prime Minister Ariel Sharon arrives today for a White House visit, Israeli officials are redoubling efforts to warn the Bush administration that Iran poses a greater threat than the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein. … A series of leaders have carried that message to Washington recently in the hope of influencing a debate that has centered not on Iran but on whether to pursue the overthrow of the Iraqi government.

That article also included a rare public critique from Israeli defence minister Fouad Ben-Eliezer: “Today, everybody is busy with Iraq. Iraq is a problem. … But you should understand, if you ask me, today Iran is more dangerous than Iraq.”