By prioritising its war in Ukraine—an endeavour fuelled more by historical mysticism than by strategic calculation—Russia is rapidly losing influence across its broader post-imperial periphery. The latest diplomatic rupture with Azerbaijan over a police raid in Yekaterinburg may seem like a sudden spark, but it is in fact the result of years of accumulated neglect, tactical incoherence, and strategic overreach. While the Kremlin is mired in a grinding war of attrition in Ukraine, regional actors within Moscow’s sphere of influence are breaking away. These are not merely isolated incidents—they form a pattern of systemic geopolitical decline.
On 24 June, Russian law enforcement launched a police raid in Yekaterinburg, during which two men were killed. The dead were ethnic Azerbaijanis and Russian citizens, whom Russian authorities described as targets of a criminal investigation. However, Baku strongly rejected that characterisation, framing the incident instead as “demonstrative, targeted, and extrajudicial killings and acts of violence committed by Russian law enforcement agencies against Azerbaijanis on ethnic grounds in Yekaterinburg.”
Regardless of who is telling the truth, this incident produced a sweeping and immediate diplomatic response from Azerbaijan. Baku summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires, cancelled high-level diplomatic meetings, suspended Russian cultural events, and authorised a raid on the local office of Sputnik Azerbaijan, a Kremlin-aligned media outlet. This was not just a reaction to one raid, it was a declaration of autonomy from a patron. The real story lies in how Russia has lost its leverage over Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is not the only former ally turning its back on Moscow. Russia has also managed to alienate neighbouring Armenia—a country with which Azerbaijan remains locked in a decades-long conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, seized from ethnic Armenians in a swift 2023 offensive. Whereas Russia once played the role of arbiter, particularly in the 1990s and even after the 2020 war, it now finds itself distrusted by both sides. A telling juxtaposition appeared on the front page of Kommersant, a prominent Russian news outlet, where these two headlines were stacked on top of each other: “Azerbaijani Ambassador Summoned to Russian Foreign Ministry” followed by “Armenian Foreign Ministry Calls on Russia Not to Interfere in Country’s Affairs.” What could better capture Moscow’s diminishing authority in the South Caucasus?
Armenia, for its part, has come to view Russia as an unreliable security partner. In 2023, Russian peacekeepers failed to intervene during Azerbaijan’s military operation that brought a definitive end to the unrecognised Armenian statelet in Nagorno-Karabakh. Stretched thin in Ukraine and increasingly dependent on a stronger Azerbaijan and its powerful ally Turkey, Moscow chose passivity. More troubling for Yerevan, however, was Russia’s silence in the face of Azerbaijani incursions into Armenia’s internationally recognised territory—despite Armenia’s formal membership in the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation), often dubbed “Russia’s NATO.” Disillusioned, Armenia froze its participation in the bloc in late 2024. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has since openly pursued closer ties with the West, particularly through deepening security cooperation with France. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, flush with victory and empowered by its alliance with Turkey, saw no further reason to treat Russia as a decisive regional arbiter.