The Open Society and Its New Enemies

I.

The idea of historical inevitability has transfixed philosophers, theologians, and politicians for millennia. From the Apostles awaiting the second coming of Christ to the Marxists who looked forward to the collapse of capitalism and the dictatorship of the proletariat, the conviction that the future is already written has an intoxicating allure. In his 1945 book The Open Society and Its Enemies, the philosopher Karl Popper described this belief as “historicism” and argued that it is among the most destructive concepts humanity has ever devised.

Popper argued that historicism is a path to totalitarianism. It encourages leaders to adopt a ruthless ends-justify-the-means mentality, as human suffering and other costs today—no matter how huge—will always be excused by the glorious new world of tomorrow. It’s anti-rational and anti-scientific, as any new development or information can be hammered into a shape that will fit historicist prophecy. And it invites callous social engineering because it encourages political leaders to think of themselves as facilitators of an inescapable destiny rather than public servants responsible for the well-being of citizens right now.

Popper traced the intellectual lineage of historicism from Heraclitus and Plato to Hegel and Marx, and ultimately, to the great totalitarian movements of the 20th century. He decided to write The Open Society and Its Enemies when Nazi Germany annexed his native Austria in March 1938, and he continued his work in the shadow of World War II. Fascism and communism, he argued, were just the latest manifestations of what he described as the “perennial revolt against freedom and reason.” And he saw historicism as a powerful instigator of this revolt.