Welcome to the Quillette Podcast, which is usually hosted on alternate weeks by me, Jonathan Kay, and by Iona Italia. Quillette is where free thought lives. We are an independent, grassroots platform for heterodox ideas and fearless commentary.

And this week, I’m going to be talking about the Canadian federal election, which will take place just days from now—on Monday April 28. To be honest, I didn’t think this was a topic I needed to cover for the Quillette podcast, since more than three quarters of our listeners are outside Canada. But there seems to be enough international attention to warrant an episode. In fact, the conversation you’re about to hear came about when an American media commentator—Ryan Girdusky—recently asked me to be a guest on his podcast, It’s a Numbers Game. That episode came out earlier this week; and, with Ryan’s permission, I’ve adapted it for the Quillette podcast in somewhat abbreviated form. So thank you to Ryan Girdusky and the folks at iHeart radio for allowing me to air this adapted episode on our channel. And if you like politics and data, check out It’s a Numbers Game at iHeart, or wherever you get your podcasts.

And just to set the background here—Monday’s Canadian federal election will be contested by a number of political parties, including the Quebec-centric Bloc Québécois, the left-wing New Democratic Party (or NDP), and the two major parties—the governing Liberals, headed by newly installed incumbent prime minister Mark Carney, and the conservatives, headed by Pierre Poilievre.

And yes, you heard me right: I said the incumbent Liberals are currently headed by a former central banker named Mark Carney, not ultra-progressive long-time PM Justin Trudeau, who resigned earlier this year amid weak poll numbers.

In fact, one of the main themes we’re going to talk about is the Liberal party’s amazing reversal in fortune since January 6, when Trudeau announced his resignation. At that time, the Liberals were behind the Conservatives by twenty points in the polls, and it seemed a foregone conclusion that Mr Poilievre would romp to victory and become the next prime minister. But Mr Carney has proven more popular than Mr Trudeau, and the Liberals now actually lead in the polls.

In addition, the election of Donald trump as US President and his decision to impose tariffs on Canada has caused Canadians to response by rallying around their government, giving the Liberals a boost. And Mr Carney has jettisoned some of his predecessor’s most unpopular policies, such as the carbon tax.

Ryan and I will be talking about all this and more, in this week’s edition of the Quillette podcast.  

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